This proposal details a plan by researchers at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln to conduct a series of workshops and surveys, and develop and analyze a decision-behavioral model to understand: (1) how the effects of climate variability are perceived and climate forecasts and products used by producers in three agroecozones in the eastern Nebraska, representing different grain production regimes , rainfed, irrigated, and a mix of both in the western Corn Belt; (2) what are the attributes entering producers’ thinking and their interplay to formulate producers’ intention and decision to act on and use or not use climate forecasts; and (3) how we can improve climate education and accordingly modify climate forecasts and products so to increase the effect of climate forecasts in farmer’s thinking and decision-making. The goals are to raise the value of climate forecasts and products and, thus, climate research in the agricultural communities in the Great Plains and reduce their vulnerability to climate risks in our changing environment.
    The specific objectives of the project are to:  (1) identify those agricultural activities most sensitive to climate variability in the study area and determine how the application of climate forecasts and products (or improved products) would help producers optimize production and profit; (2) develop measurement and evaluation devices and methods to quantify information and understand those factors that agricultural producers consider when making decisions with climate products, relative to their farm landscape and inherent climate variability and those social, environmental, and economic constraints that affect the way producers formulate climate forecasts in making their decisions; (3) use materials gathered in (2) and develop a model that will quantify the probability for producers to act, and the extent to which they act, on using various climate products and complete a particular task; (4) identify ways to improve the use of climate predictions by improving forecasts to find what adjustments in the climate forecast tools/products can be made to maximize the probability that producers will take action and correctly use the products; and (5) develop a continuous monitoring system to update our understanding of the evolution of producers’ thinking process over time, particularly, changes in the probability of using climate forecasts/products and their perception of the use of these products in their decisions in response to this project, major climate events, and government policies. This system will provide data to update the model developed in (3) and from this analysis to find adjustments for climate predictions and ways to improve predictions. This system can be used as a protocol for expanding this methodology into other counties in Nebraska and other states in the Great Plains region.

Related Websites: National Drought Mitigation Center
http://drought.unl.edu High Plains Regional Climate Center
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu

University of Nebraska Public Policy Center
http://ppc.unl.edu